Climate and risk management: are we ignoring the obvious?

Date: August 27, 2004
Time: 12:00-13:00
Room: Folkets Hus, room number 307

It is suggested that something bad or even catastrophic might be happening to the climate; can we manage the consequences? The substantial costs of reducing human influences on climate change are biting now, but the benefits may not be evident for centuries. Are Abrupt Climate Change (ACC) and Negative Emission Technologies (NET) properly appreciated in the assessment of climate risk management strategies? Despite enormous efforts in building emission scenarios, the attainability of CO2 concentration targets has not been assessed. Do additional options enable the reduction of atmospheric CO2 concentrations to levels lower than what could otherwise have been achieved? Can NET substantially reduce the cost of low emission scenarios, and thus improve mankind's ability to manage climate risks?

Aviott John, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria

Philip Campbell, Editor-in-Chief of Nature, London, UK

Bert Bolin, Meteorologiska institutionen Stockholms Universitet Stockholm, Sweden

Michael Obersteiner, IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg, Austria
Climate Risk Management Strategies
The presentation will start with a sketch of the institutional dilemma mankind faces managing climate risks and will provide an elaboration of the social construction of current climate policies. We will show that the paleoclimatic reality of Abrupt Climate Change brings about an important qualitative shift to the institutional dilemma. The presentation will conclude with a discussion on the necessity to, at least, keep open the option to attain the ‘obvious’ climate strategy.

Christian Azar, Department of Physical Resource Theory Chalmers Göteborg, Sweden
"Assessing Low Emission Targets"
We will present results from an energy-economy model of stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentration around pre-industrial levels, which were never considered by the IPCC. We are able to show that CO2 capture and storage applied to fossil fuel conversion has the potential to halve the cost of meeting these stabilization targets and that introduction of BECS can once again halve the cost. However, the potential of BECS to remove carbon from the atmosphere is not sufficient to allow a wait-and-see climate policy.

The plenary session is held on 27 August at 14:45-16:15 Venue: Norra Latin, Musiksalen.